Managed Diplomatic Containment

The most likely path is a rapid US-Ukraine damage-control effort, with Kyiv disputing intent while agreeing to a joint investigation and tighter targeting rules in the Black Sea. Washington avoids a public rupture because Ukraine remains strategically important, but maritime operations near Odesa, Pivdennyi, and the Bulgarian coast face new scrutiny.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.