Possible scenario
Trade Truce Opens
23% Chance
The White House tries to defuse the Iowa farm issue through a trade channel rather than only through subsidies. A partial U.S.-China agricultural purchase agreement would give Trump and Iowa Republicans a more durable argument that the pain is easing.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
- DE+1.5%
- ADM+1.2%
- BG+1.2%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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