Possible scenario
Democratic Farm Wave
27% Chance
Farm anger becomes a broader political problem for Iowa Republicans rather than a narrow commodity-price issue. Democrats tie the crisis to Trump’s tariffs, delayed aid, and weak soybean demand, forcing GOP candidates to choose between defending the administration and distancing themselves from it.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- DE-0.7%
- CF-0.4%
- ADM-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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