Possible scenario
Dangerous Military Contact
15% Chance
The next incident involves a closer encounter with Romanian forces, civilian infrastructure, or Black Sea shipping. This remains less likely than a contained response but is plausible given the history of drone activity near Romania and Moldova.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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