Possible scenario
Renewed FX Intervention
25% Chance
Japan and the United States move from discussion to action if yen depreciation accelerates or intraday volatility worsens. Because the August operation established a precedent for joint action, another intervention remains plausible but would probably be sized to avoid the appearance of a broader currency war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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