Possible scenario
Policy Mix Shifts
18% Chance
Officials conclude that FX intervention alone cannot offset the U.S.-Japan rate gap, so markets focus on central-bank signaling. The yen response comes through expectations for Bank of Japan tightening, Federal Reserve easing, or a combination of both.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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