Possible scenario
Targeted Enforcement
30% Chance
Washington and Brussels respond with narrow enforcement actions against shadow-fleet vessels, trading houses, insurers, and smaller financial intermediaries. The measures are designed to raise costs for Russian trade without directly sanctioning major Indian state refiners or China's largest banks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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