Possible scenario
Secondary Tariff Escalation
20% Chance
The White House uses Zelensky's claim to justify a harder line on countries still buying or financing Russian energy. Tariffs or tariff threats become the preferred tool because they are visible, politically salient, and consistent with Trump's prior pressure campaign over Russia trade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
- Industrials -1.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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