Possible scenario
Fed Split Deepens
20% Chance
Kashkari's remarks highlight a divided committee rather than a clear policy path. Markets price a wider range of outcomes, producing modest volatility without a decisive move in either direction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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