Possible scenario
Disinflation Narrative Holds
25% Chance
Cooler price data remains the dominant market input, and investors view Kashkari as one hawkish voice rather than the committee consensus. If subsequent comments or data support disinflation, the market reaction fades quickly.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.7%
- Technology +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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