Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
18% Chance
The pact invocation fails to deter the Houthis, and a second wave of attacks causes more casualties or damage inside Saudi Arabia. Iran avoids formal entry, but the risk of a proxy conflict broadening across the Gulf rises materially.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.