Possible scenario
Deterrent Deployment Holds
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye use the Mecca Defense Pact mainly to accelerate air-defense coordination, intelligence sharing and symbolic deployments. The Houthis test the coalition but avoid a step that would trigger a wider regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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