Possible scenario
Stalled Flood Emergency
25% Chance
The nor'easter slows or stalls as it interacts with the strong El Niño-influenced pattern, creating a higher-end rainfall event. Flooding risks rise in the Hudson Valley, Vermont, western Massachusetts, and parts of Connecticut that have recent flash-flood history.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
- Finance -1.9%
- Utilities -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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