Possible scenario
Progressive Coalition Split
24% Chance
Mamdani's refusal to fire Tisch opens a visible rift with activists who backed his anti-ICE position after the Bronx shooting. The dispute remains political rather than institutional, with protests, statements, and Council pressure but no immediate change in NYPD leadership.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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