Possible scenario
Federal City Standoff
19% Chance
The dispute shifts from Tisch's job security to federal-local authority over immigration enforcement. DHS and ICE accuse City Hall of obstructing lawful operations, while Mamdani argues the city is protecting residents and limiting NYPD entanglement.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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