Possible scenario
Mediation Channels Survive
25% Chance
Turkey remains involved in regional ceasefire and reconstruction discussions even as Israel refuses a Turkish oversight role inside Gaza. Ankara emphasizes humanitarian logistics and Palestinian governance, while Israel works through the United States, Egypt and Qatar.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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