Possible scenario
Bilateral Freeze Deepens
20% Chance
The dispute moves beyond speeches into formal diplomatic downgrading, with ambassadors recalled or bilateral meetings suspended. Trade and security contacts remain below 2022 normalization levels, and Turkish-Israeli travel and commercial ties face renewed uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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