Possible scenario
Arctic Militarization
20% Chance
Russia and China frame the agreement as a U.S. militarization of the Arctic, and NATO responds by emphasizing surveillance, submarine tracking and space-defense coordination. Markets price a limited increase in defense spending and Arctic-risk premia rather than a direct conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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