Possible scenario
Supply Bottlenecks Emerge
22% Chance
The capex outlook proves directionally real, but the limiting factors shift to GPUs, power, cooling equipment, permits, and launch infrastructure. This creates a mixed market reaction: suppliers with scarce capacity gain pricing power, while SpaceX and other compute buyers face execution risk.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- SPCX-4.9%
- NVDA+1.4%
- MSFT-0.6%
- META-0.6%
- VRT-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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