Possible scenario
Limited Attack Occurs
15% Chance
A small-scale attack or attempted cockpit breach occurs after the Al Qaeda appeal, causing injuries but not a mass-casualty crash. This would move the story from a security warning to a material terrorism event, with travel names hit and modest safe-haven flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -4.4%
- Industrials +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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