Possible scenario
Guardrails Tightened
36% Chance
The most likely path is a rapid Pentagon and congressional response that preserves AI use but narrows autonomy in target selection. The Biden administration and Defense Department would try to show accountability without conceding that the Iran air campaign must end.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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