Possible scenario
Accountability Contained
23% Chance
The administration may contain the scandal by blaming command failures, intelligence validation gaps, or misuse of tools rather than the broader AI strategy. This path limits market impact because the Iran campaign and AI procurement architecture remain largely intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- -3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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