Possible scenario
Moscow Escalates
25% Chance
The Kremlin could respond to unsustainable casualty ratios by escalating manpower, missile strikes, or nuclear signaling rather than negotiating. This would be a material geopolitical shift, but markets would still likely price it below a direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.