Possible scenario
Ceasefire Pressure Builds
20% Chance
The one-million-casualty figure strengthens arguments in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, and European capitals that the war’s current trajectory is unsustainable. A near-term settlement remains difficult, but back-channel talks or a limited pause become more plausible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Technology +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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