Possible scenario
Attrition Continues
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Moscow absorbs the casualty report without a major strategic reversal, continuing limited offensives in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin has repeatedly prioritized territorial and political objectives over manpower costs, while Ukraine remains dependent on steady Western ammunition and air-defense deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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