Possible scenario
Renewed Houthi Strikes
20% Chance
Houthis attempt to reverse Saudi progress by striking pipeline infrastructure, export terminals, or tankers linked to Red Sea loadings. This would shift the market narrative from repair and normalization back toward escalation and supply vulnerability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.