Possible scenario
Flows Normalize Gradually
38% Chance
Saudi Aramco continues rebuilding throughput on the East-West Pipeline, allowing more crude to move to Yanbu and Red Sea export terminals. Security risks remain elevated, but markets treat the Sept. 11 damage as manageable rather than a sustained supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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