Possible scenario
Exports Stay Constrained
27% Chance
The pipeline restart holds, but actual export logistics remain constrained by war-risk insurance, tanker routing, and the Houthi presence around Bab al-Mandab. Markets price a continuing but not crisis-level disruption to Saudi crude availability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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