Possible scenario
Late Swing-State Reversal
24% Chance
After criticism from candidates and donors, Trump partially reverses course and adds a limited swing-district schedule. The revised calendar is heavily managed by GOP officials to avoid damaging candidates in suburban or college-educated districts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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