Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Narrative
25% Chance
Democrats successfully frame Trump's absence as proof that Republican leaders have abandoned competitive districts. The story reinforces polling that already showed Trump fatigue, increasing expectations of Democratic gains in the House.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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