Possible scenario
Diesel Squeeze Persists
40% Chance
Refined-product tightness remains the dominant near-term inflation driver, with diesel and gasoil prices staying elevated after Russia's export restrictions and refinery disruptions. ECB officials keep emphasizing that headline inflation is vulnerable to energy pass-through, delaying confidence that disinflation is secure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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