Possible scenario
Investigation Broadens
20% Chance
A more serious escalation occurs if auditors or whistleblowers identify documents suggesting intentional diversion of inaugural or commemorative funds. Because the allegations concern a sitting president and affiliated businesses, the political risk premium rises modestly, though not to crisis levels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Tickers
- -6.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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