Possible scenario
Modified Arms Approval
35% Chance
Trump approves a revised version of the Taiwan arms package after months of delay, likely after extracting political messaging on burden-sharing and domestic defense manufacturing. This is plausible because the package aligns with Taiwan's drone push and U.S. defense-industrial priorities while allowing the White House to claim it shaped the deal.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- AVAV+3.9%
- LMT+1.0%
- RTX+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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