Possible scenario
Delay Becomes Bargaining
30% Chance
The White House keeps the package in review while using it as leverage in broader talks with Beijing on trade, technology controls and regional security. This fits the recent pattern of Taiwan arms sales becoming entangled with Chinese pressure and Trump’s transactional foreign-policy style.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- AVAV-0.5%
- RTX-0.3%
- LMT-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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