Possible scenario
Deal Is Scaled
20% Chance
The administration avoids a headline cancellation but materially narrows the package to items it can describe as defensive and asymmetric. This outcome balances Taiwan deterrence goals with the White House’s desire to limit confrontation with Beijing.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- AVAV+2.6%
- LMT-1.2%
- RTX-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.