Possible scenario
Trade Dispute Escalates
20% Chance
Beijing treats Trump's intervention as evidence of a coordinated U.S.-Japan containment effort and hardens its position. Japan and the U.S. respond by accelerating chip-security measures and alternative mineral sourcing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Industrials -1.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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