Possible scenario
Partial Export Relief
40% Chance
Xi offers limited relief to avoid further U.S.-Japan coordination on chip security while preserving leverage over Tokyo. Beijing keeps the broader dispute alive but allows some rare-earth flows to resume for Japanese manufacturers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Tickers
- -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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