Possible scenario
Diplomatic Stalemate
30% Chance
China declines to unwind the restrictions immediately, calculating that the measures remain useful leverage against Japan and the U.S. The parties continue talks, but companies receive little near-term clarity.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Tickers
- MP+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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