Possible scenario
Houthi Escalation Resumes
23% Chance
The Houthis respond to the local battlefield loss by escalating against Saudi infrastructure or Red Sea shipping rather than accepting a stabilized front. Given the recent attacks on Riyadh airport and Aramco Yanbu, this remains a plausible near-term retaliation path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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