Possible scenario
Government Counteroffensive Expands
27% Chance
Government-aligned forces use the Jabal Numan recovery to launch a broader counteroffensive toward supply routes linking Taiz, Lahj, and the Red Sea coast. This would suggest Houthi momentum after the Bab al-Mandeb push is less durable than feared.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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