Front Stabilizes Inland

The most likely path is that Jabal Numan becomes a limited but symbolically important recovery rather than the start of a decisive reversal. Government-aligned forces consolidate around Taiz and Lahj while the Houthis retain leverage near Bab al-Mandeb and keep long-range strike capacity intact.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.