Possible scenario
Contained Credit Stress
18% Chance
Financing risk becomes the main market concern as lenders scrutinize revenue assumptions for GPU-backed data centers. Stress remains concentrated in AI infrastructure borrowers and their suppliers rather than spreading into a broader credit event.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.2%
- Finance -1.0%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Tickers
- CRWV-6.7%
- NVDA-5.0%
- -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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