Possible scenario
Capex Digestion Cycle
30% Chance
A moderate pullback in risk appetite forces AI buyers to phase projects more slowly. Asian semiconductor and equipment suppliers face order timing risk rather than a full demand break.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Utilities -0.2%
Tickers
- MU-2.2%
- NVDA-1.9%
- AMAT-1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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