Possible scenario
Russia Role Emerges
12% Chance
Investigators find evidence that Russian actors provided targeting, reconnaissance, or technical assistance to Iran-linked or Houthi-aligned hackers. This would connect maritime cyberattacks to the wider Russia-West confrontation and increase sanctions risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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