Possible scenario
Iran-Linked Campaign Widens
28% Chance
The breach becomes part of a broader maritime cyber campaign tied to Iran-linked infrastructure or Houthi-aligned operators. The campaign remains below the threshold of open conflict but raises insurance costs, escort demand, and crude-shipping uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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