Possible scenario
Managed De-escalation
20% Chance
Diplomatic and military crisis-management channels prevent the artillery display from turning into a firefight. China, the UN Command, and Washington press for restraint while Seoul keeps forces alert but avoids provocative counter-displays.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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