Possible scenario
Limited Border Clash
27% Chance
A small-scale incident occurs along the border, likely involving warning shots, mines, or artillery rounds into unpopulated areas. Both militaries respond forcefully but keep the engagement geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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