Possible scenario
Coercive Border Signaling
44% Chance
North Korea sustains a visible artillery posture, loudspeaker activity, and UN self-defence rhetoric without initiating direct fire. Seoul, the UN Command, and U.S. Forces Korea increase surveillance and readiness, but both sides avoid a kinetic threshold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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