Possible scenario
Non-Ban Relief Package
25% Chance
The White House chooses measures that increase domestic diesel availability without formally blocking exports. This is politically useful before the midterms while avoiding the sharpest retaliation from refiners and trading partners.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- FDX+1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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