Possible scenario
International Naval Escalation
20% Chance
The mobilization draws in outside naval powers seeking to prevent a lasting Houthi hold over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint. A U.S.-, Saudi-, or Egypt-backed convoy and strike framework is plausible because the strait is critical for Suez-linked trade and energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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